2021-08-06 • Actualizada
Since the beginning of the week, Brent lost 6%. It was caused by several factors, which are described in this article. Let’s discuss them and find out how will oil price move during upcoming OPEC-JMMC meetings!
Data out of China shows that factory activity growth declined in July, which is the first time in over a year. Also, 46 cities have been locked down in China due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This fact concerns investors as China, the largest oil consumer in the world, might reduce the demand as its economic growth slows.
The ISM Manufacturing index of national factory activity fell in July. Data released by Automatic Data Processing, the payroll company, revealed that although the private sector added 330,000 jobs in July, that is less than experts predicted (653000 jobs) and less than half the number of jobs added in June. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil stockpiles increased last week, though gasoline inventories fell. Experts suggest that oil stockpiles increase was caused by export drop but not domestic demand.
In this case, traders should pay attention to export numbers, as falling export can signal worldwide demand decrease.
OPEC’s oil production hits the largest numbers since April 2020. In July 2021, the organization decided to increase output by 400000 barrels daily and plans to increase it monthly at the same number through April 2022. This could affect world supply as coronavirus lockdowns return.
4h Chart
At the moment, $67.5 is the main support level. Until Brent's price is higher than $67.5 uptrend is going to continue. The RSI and MACD show that the price is going to reverse soon and go up to $75.5. If Brent breaks this resistance, the next target will be $80.
Fundamentally, trend reversal could be caused by news from India. The data shows that gasoline demand grew by 646000 BPD in July, despite India’s second place in coronavirus cases. This country imports almost all the crude oil it needs.
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 39600... Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 39750... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Compras intradía sobre 39150
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 18100 con TP1:17900, TP2:17814 y 17630 // Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 18130 con TP: 18219, TP2: 18270 y TP3: 18428
Escenario Alcista: Compras sobre 17910 con TP:18098.07, TP2:18277 y TP3: 18415 Escenario Bajista: Ventas por debajo de 17850 con TP1:17730, TP2: 17700
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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